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"submission_count": 1, "accepted_doses": 157 }, { "facility_id": "F006", "facility_name": "Demo Facility 06", "area": "Demo Area B", "period": "2025-08", "target_doses": 172, "reporting_status": "accepted", "submission_count": 1, "accepted_doses": 150 }, { "facility_id": "F006", "facility_name": "Demo Facility 06", "area": "Demo Area B", "period": "2025-09", "target_doses": 172, "reporting_status": "accepted", "submission_count": 1, "accepted_doses": 147 }, { "facility_id": "F006", "facility_name": "Demo Facility 06", "area": "Demo Area B", "period": "2025-10", "target_doses": 172, "reporting_status": "accepted", "submission_count": 1, "accepted_doses": 147 }, { "facility_id": "F006", "facility_name": "Demo Facility 06", "area": "Demo Area B", "period": "2025-11", "target_doses": 172, "reporting_status": "accepted", "submission_count": 1, "accepted_doses": 170 }, { "facility_id": "F006", "facility_name": "Demo Facility 06", "area": "Demo Area B", "period": "2025-12", "target_doses": 172, "reporting_status": "accepted", "submission_count": 1, "accepted_doses": 168 } ], "diagnostics": { "data_label": "synthetic demonstration forecast", "target": "doses delivered (service volume), not latent demand", "training_period": "2023-01 through 2024-12", "holdout_period": "2025-01 through 2025-12", "scored_holdout_months": [ "2025-01", "2025-03", "2025-05", "2025-07", "2025-08", "2025-09", "2025-10", "2025-11", "2025-12" ], "excluded_incomplete_holdout_months": [ "2025-02", "2025-04", "2025-06" ], "imputed_facility_months_for_refit": 3, "candidate_scores": { "seasonal_naive": { "mae": 31.78, "wape_percent": 4.19 }, "ridge_trend_seasonal": { "mae": 33.89, "wape_percent": 4.47 }, "holt_winters": { "mae": 27.38, "wape_percent": 3.61 } }, "selected_model": "holt_winters", "illustrative_error_band_doses": 32.63, "limitations": "Only nine complete synthetic holdout months are scored. The same holdout selected the model, so its reported error may be optimistic. Independent future validation is still needed. The band is a descriptive error range, not a calibrated prediction interval. Missing 2025 facility values are filled from 2024 for the final fit. Delivered doses may understate true demand." } }